View from Washington, D.C.: Coronavirus relief update

Sep. 27, 2020 - By John McClelland, Ph.D. - ARA vice president for government affairs and chief economist

For the past several months, leaders on Capitol Hill and in the White House have been negotiating the next version of a coronavirus (COVID-19) relief package. To date, they have been unable to reach agreement on a bill that has the broad bipartisan support needed to pass the U.S. House of Representatives and Senate and be signed into law by the president. The reasons for the breakdown in negotiations are many, but they do not include changes to the Paycheck Protection Program (PPP). Virtually every legislative proposal related to coronavirus relief that has been introduced since passage of the CARES Act relief bill has contained provisions to improve and expand PPP. This includes the ability for businesses that continue to experience significant losses in revenues to receive a second draw of PPP funds.

The broad bipartisan support of PPP and specifically the ability for businesses to receive a second draw of PPP funds virtually assures that these PPP provisions will be included in any coronavirus relief package. Unfortunately, the current situation on Capitol Hill does not lend itself to a quick resolution of the outstanding issues in the next relief package. Our view is that the earliest we are likely to see the next comprehensive coronavirus relief bill pass is after the Nov. 3, 2020, election.

However, there is one small sliver of hope for a very targeted bill focused on PPP issues to move before the election. Several members of the House are attempting to use extraordinary procedural measures to get a PPP bill onto the House floor. Known as a discharge petition, these measures could force a bill to the House floor and guarantee a vote on that bill after limited debate. A discharge petition requires 218 signatures from House members. That means it will require bipartisan support. There are indications of strong support for the discharge petition among Republican House members and that many moderate Democrats also are considering signing the petition.

If the discharge petition is successful and a PPP relief bill goes to the House floor it will almost certainly pass. Passage of a targeted PPP relief bill by the House could lead Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell (R-Ky.) to bring up the bill in the Senate. If the Senate were to pass the bill without amendment it would go to the president for signature.

If you are thinking there are a lot of ifs in these last few sentences, you are correct. The chances that a discharge petition will be successful are not high, but they are not trivial. We continue to have daily contact with House members on both sides of the aisle in an effort to monitor the situation and offer our assistance in moving this process forward. The members we are in contact with tell us the extraordinary efforts are absolutely justified by the extraordinary times in which we live. We hope to know the outcome of the discharge petition effort soon.